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There’s a thought-provoking story on the Guardian Unlimited Web site today: a poll of 2,400 British Internet users found that only 15% had ever downloaded a full-length TV program, and only 14% had downloaded a feature-length film. Lest any American readers think that this represents British technophobia, a Pew Internet study of American Internet users found that exact same number – 15% – of video downloaders in January 2005. The reason for download reluctance, the British survey found, does not come as a surprise: the process is too slow and unreliable. If downloading was quick and easy, two-thirds of respondents said they’d be interested. That latent demand is of course why so many companies, from Netflix (NFLX) to Wal-Mart (WMT), are rushing to get into the downloadable video market. There’s little doubt that one or more firms is going to find a way to make the experience simpler and sexier, the way that Apple (AAPL) did with iTunes. But The Browser wonders how high the number will ever get. For the masses of television and film watchers, the television/video player and the computer remain two very different devices. Yes, they are converging somewhat, but it’s also true that video-on-demand is exploding. Some studies put video-on-demand growth in the U.S. at 40% every year; a 2006 industry study concluded: “The overall global VoD market will grow from below $2 billion in 2006, to approach $13 Billion in 2010. By 2010, there will be nearly 150 million active VoD users/subscribers worldwide.” Those are explosive numbers, and if consumers are flocking to video-on-demand on their TVs they may well stay away from downloads; who needs ‘em? And it’s not accurate to assume that these technology adaptations always go up: the Pew survey in 2005 found that 22% of Internet users had ever downloaded music, but that was well below the 32% who said they had in October 2002. Sure, the overall pie of Internet users no doubt grew between 2002 and 2005, but still, it suggests that even simpler downloading tasks can reach a peak, provided there are other ways for consumers to get the media they want. Filed under video downloads, online media, Wal-Mart, iTunes Posted by jimledbetter 11:48 am 11 Comments
I’ve been a Netflix subsciber for almost a year and I couldn’t be happier with them – I wouldn’t even think of downloading a movie. The problem is that consumers don’t want to download movies/shows that are chock full of ads, when they could get it on demand for a modest fee without commercial interruption. The studios have not yet realised that people are not willing to pay for sub par video or sit through commercials for such poor quality. The only true places to get quality video without interuptions are still being labeled “pirates”. Maybe instead of prosecuting these people the studios should hire them because they definitly know what their consumers want. If millions of people are willing to wait days for Netflix to ship the next DVD on their rental queue, then surely they’d be happy to not have to walk out to their mailbox and just wait overnight for the next movie on their queue to download. Plus they won’t be subject to Netflix’s frequent-renter squeeze. Download rentals will do better if the providers don’t promise instant gratification. Convenience is enough for now until higher bandwidths arrive. And they’re just around the corner! with videocasting like ustream.tv does, is downloading content passe.. why would I pay for it, when i can download for free from www.ovguide.com. Plus, it’s easier to keep track of a DVD, than it is a movie file on my hard drive somewhere. Al, higher bandwidths are not just around the corner. Go to Europe, where download speeds are 2-3 times faster than here in America. The telecomm industry is purposefully keeping our download speeds slower and charging us more. It’s a shame that we have to deal with such politics. The problem with VOD is that it is more complicated than using a DVD player. This can be significant when you consider that most people couldn’t even figure out how to program a VCR. Uuhh.. what’s a VCR ? Let’s see: Download a video to watch on my little 20″ computer screen or rent a movie to watch on the much larger 32″ TV. No contest…I don’t want to sit there straining away to see anything on my computer, nor have the whole family trying to elbow in on viewing such a small screen. Hook the computer to the TV? No thanks, I don’t need my spreadsheets to be on a 32″ screen, nor my emails, nor do I want a giant cable running from the computer room to the living room. If you download videos to get away from commercials and everyone followed suit, eventually you would have NOTHING to watch since advertisers won’t pay the money if no one is exposed to their product…TV shows are free for you and me, but not for the networks. The problems are: I wouldn’t download a movie on a PC to play on a TV because the quality isn’t that great. Plus, why would I want to sit in front of a 19″ PC monitor to watch a movie instead of watching it on my 50″ HDTV? Add a Comment To send a letter to the editor about The Browser, click here. « The death of copper, part deux Love mom? Buy her a wireless calling plan! » CNNMoney.com Comment Policy: CNNMoney.com encourages you to add a comment to this discussion. You may not post any unlawful, threatening, libelous, defamatory, obscene, pornographic or other material that would violate the law. Please note that CNNMoney.com makes reasonable efforts to review all comments prior to posting and CNNMoney.com may edit comments for clarity or to keep out questionable or off-topic material. All comments should be relevant to the post and remain respectful of other authors and commenters. By submitting your comment, you hereby give CNNMoney.com the right, but not the obligation, to post, air, edit, exhibit, telecast, cablecast, webcast, re-use, publish, reproduce, use, license, print, distribute or otherwise use your comment(s) and accompanying personal identifying information via all forms of media now known or hereafter devised, worldwide, in perpetuity. CNNMoney.com Privacy Statement.
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